There was a time in 1985 when my commodity trading advisor was long silver.
I was at a conference in Scottsdale, AZ and the position became hugely profitable.
I walked into a meeting with a self-satisfied smirk thinking about what color the new Porsche should be.
But when I left the meeting a short time later, everything had changed. My once profitable position had, in a New York Minute, had turned to a loss. That’s the comeuppance markets of any variety can provide. So now, there are no victory laps allowed until open positions are closed.
The most shorted and oversold sector (Biotech) began to rally today with the Dow down over 500 points as a "take-no-prisoners" short squeeze was underway. This naturally spilled over to the rest of markets more than halving heavy losses. By day’s end the only sector with only modest loves was the Nasdaq and Small Caps where some bulls felt selling had gotten out of hand.
The response from what passes as officialdom was led by none other than Senator Harry Reid saying, “…lawmaker should stay calm.” I don’t know if he’s on retainer from CNBC but his comments highlighted how serious market chaos had become. All I can assert is to remember the Yogi Berra admonition, “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over”.
Markets were all over the map Wednesday but still ended substantially lower to the tune of roughly 1.5% adding to oversold conditions despite the late day rally. The major negative theme, collapsing crude oil prices, remained largely intact as it fell nearly 6% on the day.
The Fed has remained quiet since the pent-up deluge of selling began after the manipulated 2015 close. There are no doubt focus groups meeting at the Fed now crafting out nuanced statements why their policies have failed so miserably. Is QE4 their next step? If so, their credibility will be severely tested as will other central bankers.
Market sectors moving higher included: Volatility (VIX), Oil & Exploration Companies,Treasury Bonds (TLT), Biotech (IBB), Retail (XRT), Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Natural Gas (UNG) and Silver (SLV) but little else.
Market sectors moving lower included: Everything else.
Below is the heat map from Finviz reflecting those ETF market sectors moving higher (green) and falling (red). Dependent on the day (green) may mean leveraged inverse or leveraged short (red).
Volume was once again substantial and breadth per the WSJ was quite negative.
Are we having fun yet? If you’re long, probably not.
If you’re in cash, there’s nothing wrong with that. If you’re short, you’re making nervous money.
I’d say the Fed is preparing for QE4 even if it risks their recent (economic growth is “solid”) interest increase. A loss of credibility can pose even more dangerous risks for investors.
We’ve been in cash since the end of 2015 and just waiting for our opportunities to short or get long again. For the latter to happen a lot of damage needs healing.
Let’s see what happens.
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