GOOD NEWS IS (FILL IN THE BLANK) ? / DAVE´S DAILY

Good News Is (Fill In The Blank)?

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Dave´s Daily

 

 
You now have your choice. Is headline news Bullish? Bearish? Confusing? Deceptive? Orwellian? It could be all of these and then some.

After 7 years of “emergency”, Fed monetary policies (QE & ZIRP) is the coming normalization too scary for investors for addicted bulls to handle? That may be since these policies have lasted much too long since the emergency had passed years ago.

Friday’s Employment Report (271K jobs vs prior 137K & Unemployment Rate 5%) had bulls frantic early as the headline report seemed overwhelming too positive meaning an interest rate hike was now a lock for December.

But then a look behind the data displayed some negative or deceptive data.  First 94.5M people are no longer working or in the data with the participation rate was lowest in 38 years. Further, new jobs consisted of 378K to those 55 and over while -35K to 25 to 55. Finally, the quality of new jobs went to the lowest job categories as shown below.

  


Consumer Credit this day expanded to a record $28.9 billion, or 4.9%. Most of this, $22 billion was Student Loans and Auto Loans. Who owns most of this debt? Well, you do.


So, you think I’m negatively biased? The data is real and I’ll leave it at that. Besides, the bullish financial media won’t cover this as they don’t sweat the details. 

Stocks traded on both sides of unchanged only to finish modestly higher on the day.

Weakness was due to fears an interest rate hike was “a lock” as some suggested while bulls shrugged it off making it business as usual.

I’d say there were plenty of Sovereign Wealth Funds biding stocks higher. It was reported the Swiss National Bank purchased another 900,000 shares of Apple during the previous quarter taking their holdings to nearly $1.2 billion or 9 million shares.



Market sectors moving higher included: Financials (XLF), Banks (KBE), Small Caps (IWM), Transports (IYT), Hedged Europe (HEDJ), Hedged Japan (DXJ), Shanghai (PEK), Italy (EWI), Dollar (UUP) and few others.

Market sectors moving lower included: Healthcare (XLV), Energy (XLE), REITs (IYR), Consumer Staples (XLP), Retail (XR T), Homebuilders (XHB), Europe (VGK), Emerging Markets (EEM), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), China (FXI), Russia (RSX), Brazil (EWZ), South Korea (EWY), Taiwan (EWT), Hong Kong (EWH), Indonesia (IDX), Mexico (EWW), Canada (EWC), South Africa (EZA), Euro (FXE), Corporate Bonds (LQD), High Yield Bonds (HYB), Treasury Bonds (TLT), Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Silver (SLV), Crude Oil (USO) and Commodities (DBC).

The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.

Volume was higher on the day but breadth per the WSJ was mixed to negative.

Money flow was quite negative.

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Charts of the Day

Major U.S. Markets (7)
U.S. Market Sectors & ETFs (12)
Bonds (2)
Commodity & Currency ETFs (10)
International & Emerging Market ETFs (13)
$NYMO (1)
$NYSI (1)
$VIX (1)

• SPY 5 MINUTE

  
  
  
  
  

• SPX DAILY

  
  
  
  

• SPX WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• INDU DAILY

  
  
  
  

• INDU WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• RUT WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• NDX WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLB WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLE WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLF WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLI WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLV WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLP WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLY WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XRT WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• ITB WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• IYR WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• IYT WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• XLU WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• MUB WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• TLT WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• UUP WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• FXE WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• FXY WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• FXA MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• GLD MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• GDX MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• SLV MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• DBB MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• USO MONTHLY

  
  
  
  

• DBA WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EFA WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• IEV WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• HEDJ WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EEM WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EWJ WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• DXJ WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EWG WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EWU WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EWA WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• EWZ WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• RSX WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• FXI WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• ASHR WEEKLY

  
  
  
  

• NYMO DAILY

  
  
  The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60 markets are extended short-term.
  
  

• NYSI DAILY

  
  
  The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.
  
  

• VIX WEEKLY

  
  
  The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge". Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.
  
  
  
  

There was a lot to absorb Friday given what passed great employment news.

Clearly bulls and algos don’t have time or interest in looking at the data beyond the headlines. But they should. Eventually, and I mean “eventually”, what’s behind the numbers will catch up to markets overall.

As most trend-followers know, “the news follows the trend” and if future news isn’t supportive of this fall rally, the rally will be a bust.
We’ll have to see if that adage holds true in this new environment markets are in.

Let’s see what happens.