sábado, 31 de octubre de 2015

sábado, octubre 31, 2015

Fed Anxious To Raise Rates
             
Summary
 
For the past 7 years, Fed policies have been on “emergency” conditions.
       
The economy moved off that condition years ago, but they’ve kept these policies in place.
       
Why? It’s due to pressure from Wall Street and the financial industry since the policies have led to stock market gains and easy terms to finance stock buybacks and M&A.
       
The Fed this day changed its language, dropping worries about global economic conditions that may negatively affect the U.S. economy. That is considered “hawkish,” meaning now they’re free to raise.
10-28-2015 6-48-32 PM JY2
 
For the past 7 years, Fed policies have been on "emergency" conditions.
 
The economy moved off that condition years ago, but they've kept these policies in place.
 
Why? It's due to pressure from Wall Street and the financial industry since the policies have led to stock market gains and easy terms to finance stock buybacks and M&A activity.
 
The Fed this day changed its language, dropping worries about global economic conditions that may negatively affect the U.S. economy. That is considered "hawkish," meaning now they're free to raise interest rates sooner. But Wall Street wasn't buying it, as stocks rallied post the announcement.
 
Nevertheless, after all this time, the Fed is still finding it difficult to normalize monetary policies. Bulls love and feast on their indecision.
 
U.S. stocks rallied sharply after an early bout ("the first move's the wrong move") of selling.
 
On the other hand, overseas markets, especially emerging markets, still experienced selling, as did currency markets and precious metals due to a rise in the dollar. And as stocks rallied, bond markets witnessed modest selling.
 
Market sectors moving higher included: S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), Dow (NYSEARCA:DIA), Small-Caps (NYSEARCA:IWM), Mid-Caps (NYSEARCA:MDY), Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF), Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), Materials (NYSEARCA:XLB), Retail (NYSEARCA:XRT), Semiconductors (NYSEARCA:SMH), Europe (NYSEARCA:VGK), Hedged Europe (NYSEARCA:HEDJ), EAFE (NYSEARCA:EFA), Japan (NYSEARCA:EWJ), Hedged Japan (NYSEARCA:DXJ), Russia (NYSEARCA:RSX), Canada (NYSEARCA:EWC), Crude Oil (NYSEARCA:USO) and so forth.
 
Market sectors moving lower included: Transports (NYSEARCA:IYT), Utilities (NYSEARCA:XLU), Consumer Staples (NYSEARCA:XLP), REITs (NYSEARCA:IYR), Emerging Markets (NYSEARCA:EEM), China (NYSEARCA:FXI), Shanghai (NYSEARCA:ASHR), Brazil (NYSEARCA:EWZ), India (NYSEARCA:EPI), South Korea (NYSEARCA:EWY), Taiwan (NYSEARCA:EWT), Australia (NYSEARCA:EWA), Asia ex-Japan (NASDAQ:AAXJ), Philippines (NYSEARCA:EPHE), Thailand (NYSEARCA:THD), Indonesia (NYSEARCA:IDX), Singapore (NYSEARCA:EWS), Gold (NYSEARCA:GLD), Gold Stocks (NYSEARCA:GDX) and others.
 
The top ETF daily market movers by percentage change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily.
 
Volume improved given the Fed announcement, and breadth per the WSJ was positive.
10-28-2015 7-27-00 PM diary
  • SPY 5 MINUTE
  • SPY 5 MINUTE
  • SPX DAILYSPX DAILY
  • SPX WEEKLYSPX WEEKLY
  • INDU DAILYINDU DAILY
  • INDU WEEKLYINDU WEEKLY
  • RUT WEEKLYRUT WEEKLY
  • NDX WEEKLYNDX WEEKLY
  • XLB WEEKLYXLB WEEKLY
  • XLE WEEKLYXLE WEEKLY
  • XLF WEEKLYXLF WEEKLY
  • XLI WEEKLYXLI WEEKLY
  • XLP WEEKLYXLP WEEKLY
  • XLY WEEKLYXLY WEEKLY
  • XRT WEEKLYXRT WEEKLY
  • XLV WEEKLYXLV WEEKLY
  • IBB WEEKLYIBB WEEKLY
  • IYR WEEKLYIYR WEEKLY
  • ITB WEEKLYITB WEEKLY
  • IYT WEEKLYIYT WEEKLY
  • XLU WEEKLYXLU WEEKLY
  • TLT WEEKLYTLT WEEKLY
  • UUP WEEKLYUUP WEEKLY
  • FXE WEEKLYFXE WEEKLY
  • FXY WEEKLYFXY WEEKLY
  • GLD WEEKLYGLD WEEKLY
  • GDX MONTHLYGDX MONTHLY
  • SLV WEEKLYSLV WEEKLY
  • DBB MONTHLYDBB MONTHLY
  • USO MONTHLYUSO MONTHLY
  • DBA WEEKLYDBA WEEKLY
  • DBC MONTHLYDBC MONTHLY
  • EFA WEEKLYEFA WEEKLY
  • IEV WEEKLYIEV WEEKLY
  • EEM WEEKLYEEM WEEKLY
  • IDX WEEKLYIDX WEEKLY
  • AAXJ WEEKLYAAXJ WEEKLY
  • EWY WEEKLYEWY WEEKLY
  • EWZ WEEKLYEWZ WEEKLY
  • RSX WEEKLYRSX WEEKLY
  • EPI WEEKLYEPI WEEKLY
  • GXC WEEKLYGXC WEEKLY
  • NYMO DAILYNYMO DAILY
  • The NYMO is a market breadth indicator that is based on the difference between the number of advancing and declining issues on the NYSE. When readings are +60/-60, markets are extended short term.
  •  
  • NYSI DAILYNYSI DAILY
    The McClellan Summation Index is a long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator. It is a market breadth indicator, and interpretation is similar to that of the McClellan Oscillator, except that it is more suited to major trends. I believe readings of +1000/-1000 reveal markets as much extended.

  • VIX WEEKLYVIX WEEKLY
    The VIX is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge." Our own interpretation is highlighted in the chart above. The VIX measures the level of put option activity over a 30-day period. Greater buying of put options (protection) causes the index to rise.

Closing Comments

A lot of the old rules we've followed as investors have fallen away given the interference and manipulation of markets by Fed policies.

Even they have a sense "emergency" policies developed seven years ago have long overstayed. Wall Street positive stock market results and so forth have pressured them to maintain these policies.

The Fed does march to Wall Street's tune after all.

GDP Data is on tap for Thursday and it too has fallen to government manipulation. And so it goes.
Let's see what happens.

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