Greece’s pro-EU forces must win more than referendum
Greece’s pro-Europeans risk losing political battle after Sunday’s referendum, writes Hugo Dixon
What happens if Greece votes Yes in Sunday’s referendum? Will the country’s future in the eurozone be secure? Unfortunately not, in part because Greece’s pro-European forces are so divided that they will struggle to gain power.
It is true that a Yes vote would probably lead to the resignation of Alexis Tsipras, the radical left prime minister who is campaigning for No. There would then probably be a new election because it would be tricky to put together a pro-European coalition from the current parliament.
Even if the three pro-European parties — New Democracy, To Potami and Pasok — collectively won more votes in that election than Mr Tsipras’s Syriza group, they could easily fail to get a majority in the 300-member parliament. This is because, under Greek law, the party with the largest number of votes gets a 50-seat bonus. If Syriza emerged as the largest single party, it might end up still in government or, at least, able to block the pro-Europeans.
The way to avoid this is for the opposition to join forces. They would then probably get the 50-seat bonus and be able to form a government. The snag is that, despite several months of talks, they cannot agree on how such an arrangement would work and who would be the candidate for prime minister.
Stavros Theodorakis, the leader of To Potami, an upstart centrist party, does not even want to be seen in public with Antonis Samaras, the former prime minister and leader of the centre-right New Democracy group. This is because he fears that his new party would be tainted by association with the old parties that helped bring Greece to its current crisis. But Mr Samaras is not prepared to do a deal if he is being treated like a leper.
Meanwhile, everybody is arguing about who should have the limelight. For example, there was a dispute about who should appear at a rally in Athens on Tuesday night organised by the grassroots We Remain in Europe campaign. Eventually the political leaders agreed not to give speeches, leaving the popular mayors of Athens and Thessaloniki — who are not party politicians — to take centre stage.
There is no time to waste with such bickering. A new election could be called next week if there is a Yes vote. Even if there is a No vote, there may have to be elections because Mr Tsipras’s government may not survive if the banks, which have been closed all week, stay shut.
Some banging together of heads is needed. The idea should be to tell the three party leaders to put the national interest above their own petty agendas. They should agree on a single list in case there are elections and choose a fourth person, who is not one of them, as the prime ministerial candidate.
This candidate needs to be tough, decisive and not tarnished by the failures of the past. Given that any election would take place at a time of great fear, the presumptive future prime minister has to be able to command confidence. He or she does not need to be charismatic.
Greece’s former prime ministers could collectively call in the party leaders and deliver this message. Maybe the active politicians would listen to the elder statesmen.
If the Greek opposition can agree on a joint leader, the parties would then have to sign up to a common programme. The core of this would be to pursue tough reforms in exchange for more loans from creditors to avoid the country going bust. There also must not be a repeat of 2012 when Mr Samaras pulled the rug from under Lucas Papademos, the technocratic prime minister he was supposed to be supporting, before the job of turning Greece around was done.
It will be hard to create such a common front. But it would be an unforgivable tragedy if Greece’s pro-European politicians win the referendum only to lose the subsequent war.
The writer is the author of ‘The In/Out Question ’
It is true that a Yes vote would probably lead to the resignation of Alexis Tsipras, the radical left prime minister who is campaigning for No. There would then probably be a new election because it would be tricky to put together a pro-European coalition from the current parliament.
Even if the three pro-European parties — New Democracy, To Potami and Pasok — collectively won more votes in that election than Mr Tsipras’s Syriza group, they could easily fail to get a majority in the 300-member parliament. This is because, under Greek law, the party with the largest number of votes gets a 50-seat bonus. If Syriza emerged as the largest single party, it might end up still in government or, at least, able to block the pro-Europeans.
The way to avoid this is for the opposition to join forces. They would then probably get the 50-seat bonus and be able to form a government. The snag is that, despite several months of talks, they cannot agree on how such an arrangement would work and who would be the candidate for prime minister.
Meanwhile, everybody is arguing about who should have the limelight. For example, there was a dispute about who should appear at a rally in Athens on Tuesday night organised by the grassroots We Remain in Europe campaign. Eventually the political leaders agreed not to give speeches, leaving the popular mayors of Athens and Thessaloniki — who are not party politicians — to take centre stage.
There is no time to waste with such bickering. A new election could be called next week if there is a Yes vote. Even if there is a No vote, there may have to be elections because Mr Tsipras’s government may not survive if the banks, which have been closed all week, stay shut.
Some banging together of heads is needed. The idea should be to tell the three party leaders to put the national interest above their own petty agendas. They should agree on a single list in case there are elections and choose a fourth person, who is not one of them, as the prime ministerial candidate.
This candidate needs to be tough, decisive and not tarnished by the failures of the past. Given that any election would take place at a time of great fear, the presumptive future prime minister has to be able to command confidence. He or she does not need to be charismatic.
Greece’s former prime ministers could collectively call in the party leaders and deliver this message. Maybe the active politicians would listen to the elder statesmen.
If the Greek opposition can agree on a joint leader, the parties would then have to sign up to a common programme. The core of this would be to pursue tough reforms in exchange for more loans from creditors to avoid the country going bust. There also must not be a repeat of 2012 when Mr Samaras pulled the rug from under Lucas Papademos, the technocratic prime minister he was supposed to be supporting, before the job of turning Greece around was done.
It will be hard to create such a common front. But it would be an unforgivable tragedy if Greece’s pro-European politicians win the referendum only to lose the subsequent war.
The writer is the author of ‘The In/Out Question ’
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