American Optimism Rebounds—Cautiously
The encouraging trends are a flashing yellow light for both parties and their 2016 campaigns.
By William A. Galston
Jan. 20, 2015 7:53 p.m. ET
As the players begin suiting up for 2016, the playing field is shifting in ways that will affect the strategies of presidential aspirants in both parties. Optimism about the future is rising. So is the public’s approval of President Obama ’s performance. As worries about the economy and job creation diminish, other issues—such as terrorism and foreign policy—are increasingly matters of public concern.
Every major survey conducted in January shows a significant improvement in the mood of the country. The CBS News poll finds that 38% of Americans now think that things are going in the right direction, compared with 27% in October. For the NBC/Wall Street Journal, that percentage stood at 31, up from 27% in December. Among all Americans, the ABC/Washington Post survey found 39% with a positive view of the country’s direction, up 12 points from a year ago.
Getty Images In response to a slightly different question, 32% of Americans told Gallup researchers that they were generally satisfied with the way things are going, up from 23% in December; 31% offered that response to the Pew Research Center, up from 26%. According to Gallup and ABC/Washington Post, the gain shows up among Independents and even Republicans, not just Democrats.
This shift is correlated with an improving assessment of the economy. The ABC/Washington Post survey found that 41% of Americans now view the economy as excellent or good, up sharply from 27% just three months ago. Forty-five percent of the NBC/Wall Street Journal respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the state of the economy today, up from 36% in early November. Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index—a composite of current conditions and perceptions of the economy’s trajectory—now stands at the highest level since Gallup inaugurated it in 2008.
In January 2014, only 35% of Americans said they were better off than a year ago, compared with 42% who said worse off. Now, fully 47% say they are better off, while the number reporting declining personal finances fell sharply to 28%. Here again, the reported improvements are broad-based—7% among Republicans, 14% for Independents, 16% for Democrats. And 65% expect their finances to improve in the next 12 months, just six points shy of the peak recorded in 1998.
Asking different questions, Pew finds that 27% of Americans now say that economic conditions are excellent or good, up from 16% a year ago; 24% say that economic conditions are poor, down from 39% in January 2014; 31% expect the economy to be better a year from now, compared with only 17% who think it will be worse. Thirty-eight percent think that the president’s economic policies have made conditions better; only 28% think the reverse. As the Pew researchers note, this is the most positive rating of President Obama’s impact in more than five years.
Not surprisingly, the president’s job rating has risen significantly. According to Pew, 47% of Americans now approve of Mr. Obama’s performance, up from 42% last fall.
ABC/Washington Post found the identical level of approval among registered voters; NBC/Wall Street Journal, 46%. A broad-based average of national surveys conducted during this period finds a similar increase. Mr. Obama is now in a statistical tie with Ronald Reagan at the beginning of his presidency’s seventh year.
These trends are flashing a yellow light for both political parties. On the one hand, Americans express more confidence in the president’s approach to the economy than in Republican leaders, and they are divided almost evenly on the question of whether history will judge him to have been successful or unsuccessful. Republicans gearing up to run against Mr. Obama’s “failed policies” should rethink their approach.
On the other hand, Americans have managed to curb their enthusiasm for recent developments. According to Pew, 66% say that the economy is recovering but not strongly; 57% still say that jobs are hard to find in their local areas. And 55% say that their family’s income is failing to keep up with the cost of living. Thirty-seven percent say they are staying about even, and only 6% think they are getting ahead. This assessment is widely shared, among men and women, racial and ethnic minorities as well as whites, Democrats and Independents as well as Republicans. Democratic candidates do not yet have the luxury of running “let us continue” campaigns.
Everything now depends on the trajectory of real wages and household incomes over the next 18 months. If they trend up noticeably, validating the current wave of optimism, we will have one kind of national election. If they do not, the Democratic nominee will be pressured to go beyond Mr. Obama’s policies, the Republican nominee will have to lay out a new conservative agenda that redeems the promise of real gains for working- and middle-class Americans, and economists of every persuasion will be called upon to explain how wages can remain stagnant even as labor markets tighten.
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario