CRACKS IN THE BRICS START TO SHOW / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENT & ANALYSIS

November 3, 2014 2:04 pm

Cracks in the Brics start to show

Gideon Rachman

 

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A shared feeling that the west has run things for too long masks deep divergences in world views

 

 

 

Historians may record that Brics mania reached its height during the 2014 football World Cup in Brazil. President Dilma Rousseff used the occasion to host a summit of the leaders of the five Brics: Brazil itself, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The formation of a new Brics development bank was announced, with its headquarters in Shanghai.

 

The only thing that spoiled Ms Rousseff’s Brics party was that it took place against the backdrop of the spectacular defeat of the Brazilian national team in the tournament – 7-1 to Germany. A few months later, it is beginning to feel as if the Brics may ultimately prove as much of a disappointment as the host side.

There are three big emerging problems with the Brics story. The first is economic. Three of the five nations involved – Brazil, Russia and South Africa – are floundering economically. This year’s Indian election was also fought against a backdrop of several years of disappointing economic growth. Of the Brics, China alone is still growing at more than 7 per cent a year – but it is in the midst of difficult reforms. Shared dynamism was meant to be the basis of the Brics story – but it has been lost, at least for the moment.

 

The second difficulty is political. When the Brics were booming, it was natural to argue that their political systems were also functioning well. Now that several are in trouble, political weaknesses such as corruption are more apparent.
 

The third problem is to do with the incoherence of the group. Although the Brics clearly do aspire to be a voice for the non-western world, they are a very disparate group. Developments in Brazil or South Africa shed no light on the future of China – a country that is so large and powerful that it is really in a category of its own. Meanwhile Russia is mired in a deep and unique crisis in its relations with the west.

 

Even where real similarities do exist between the countries, they are no longer particularly positive. I spent last week in South Africa, and was struck by how its problems parallel those of Brazil. In 2010, the year Ms Rousseff was first elected, the country was growing at 7.5 per cent a year. But this year growth is likely to be less than 1 per cent. In South Africa, economic growth this year will probably be 1.4 per cent; far less than the more than 5 per cent forecast in the national development plan.

In both countries, stunning natural beauty and the potential for a beguiling lifestyle are undermined by a pervasive fear of crime. The first four items on a nightly news bulletin I watched in Johannesburg were all to do with different murder cases – including the murder of the goalkeeper of the national football team. In both nations, a sizeable underclass lack basic services and decent housing, while middle-class complaints about unreliable infrastructure mount. Even posh areas of Johannesburg have been hit by power and water outages in recent weeks.

Complaints about corruption are a central theme of politics in both Brazil and South Africa – and that is true of the other three Brics, as well. In China, President Xi Jinping has made a campaign against graft a central theme of his administration. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ascetic image and promise to clean up government were central to his electoral victory this year. In Russia, meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin’s opponents have dubbed his United Russia the “party of crooks and thieves”.

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