FOUR GOOD REASONS TO BET AGAINST BRAZIL / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENT & ANALYSIS

June 10, 2014 2:00 pm

Four good reasons to bet against Brazil

Simon Kuper in São Paulo

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Only one of the last eight World Cups was won by the host

©Reuters

Brazil's national team at a training session

If you had to bet your last £1 on this World Cup, you would put it on Brazil. The hosts – who open the tournament against Croatia in São Paulo on Thursday – must be the most plausible champions. Their team is decent, no rival looks invincible and home advantage is worth on average two-thirds of a goal per game in international football.

The bookmakers do make Brazil favourites, but at odds of 3-1 against (stake one to win three). This implies that they think Brazil probably will not win. That makes sense: World Cups are unkind to favourites, and have become less kind to hosts. Here is why Brazil’s global fan base should be afraid.

Brazil’s boosters like to trot out the stat that all six previous World Cups in Latin America were won by Latin American teams. But that was between 1930 and 1986, since when football has changed. 

Long-ago European teams used to arrive overfed and undertrained after transoceanic ship journeys. Exotic Latin food was the next challenge: England’s hopes in Mexico in 1970 collapsed with the stomach troubles of their goalkeeper Gordon Banks. And then there were Latin American political shenanigans. Argentina’s victory in 1978 probably owed something to the ruling General Videla’s awe-inspiring visit to the Peruvian changing-room before Argentina-Peru.

Today’s visiting teams will feel more at ease. The modern footballer’s spiritual homeland is a five-star hotel, where he plays on his Xbox wondering idly whether he is in Azerbaijan. Only one of the last eight World Cups was won by the host.

Brazil’s second problem: a World Cup is so short that luck plays a big role. That often confounds favourites. If the tournament lasted 38 games, like England’s Premier League, Brazil would probably win. Instead, the winner will play just seven games, the last four of them knockout. One bad referee’s call, or a scuffed penalty, and the best team can go out. In any case, favourites in football lose more often than in rugby, basketball or tennis.

The third reason to bet against Brazil: their personnel. Few Brazilians would argue that the current line-up could match the team that won Brazil’s last World Cup in 2002. It is worrying when your goalkeeper, Julio Cesar, plays for Toronto FC.

Lastly, there is the Brazilian flaw, exploited by several European opponents at recent World Cups. European teams nowadays defend with 11 men. Even the best-paid forward tracks back at top pace. Brazil’s pragmatic coach Luiz Felipe Scolari aspires to that, but it is not in his players’ upbringing. Scolari will recall the night in 2002 that plucky little Belgium nearly upset his great Seleçâo. As the current Belgian manager Marc Wilmots recalls, Brazil’s forwards “didn’t like to come back. In midfield we were the boss. They didn’t get the ball.”

Before the Brazil-France quarter final in 2006, the French coach Raymond Domenech told his players: “Never let them have the ball. Win it back as fast as possible, and never give it to them.” Brazil with the ball were terrifying, he said. Instead, Domenech continued: “Make them come and get the ball. 

The Brazilians don’t like defending, so they will let go fast. Do you see someone like Ronaldo running the length of the field after the ball? The Brazilian attackers don’t tire themselves out defending. That’s their weak point. So if you master the ball, you’ll do what you want with them.” France won 1-0. In 2010, after Brazil went behind against Holland in the quarter final, they could not win back the ball to attack.

Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff, facing elections in October, will be hoping her players show some European discipline.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.