April 22, 2014 7:04 pm
High-stakes Asian tour for Obama
US must reassure allies without fuelling China’s fears
It has become fashionable to talk of the US-Japan relationship as a relic of a bygone era. President Barack Obama must use his first state visit to Japan on Wednesday to reassure his hosts of its continued relevance.
His trip comes at a tense moment. China is stepping up its sovereign claims in the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands and with its neighbours in the South China Sea. Japan, the Philippines and others worry that the Obama administration is lukewarm in upholding US treaty commitments to them. China, on the other hand, fears the US is trying to contain it.
Mr Obama’s challenge will be steepest in Japan. Relations between Tokyo and Beijing are at their lowest ebb in years. Shinzo Abe’s unapologetic brand of nationalism has emboldened Beijing’s adventurism in the Senkakus, which China calls the Diaoyu, and elsewhere. Almost 18 months into his premiership, Mr Abe has yet to meet Xi Jinping, China’s president.
Mr Obama is thus walking into a dialogue of the deaf. He will need to reassure Mr Abe that the US stands firmly behind its defence obligations to Japan. But he must do it in a way that does not fuel China’s paranoia.
In themselves, Mr Abe’s efforts to loosen Japan’s constitutional limits on its military are reasonable – and in line with longstanding US requests. But combined with gestures such as visiting the Yasukuni shrine, which counts war criminals among fallen warriors, they look provocative. Mr Obama must insist his Japanese hosts stop offending China’s sensitivities.
The US president must also navigate a delicate course in the Philippines, which he will visit as part of his four-nation tour. Ties between Manila and Beijing are close to breaking point over Chinese incursions on to rocky shoals within the 200-mile Philippine exclusion zone. More than 20 years after ejecting the US from its Subic Bay naval base, Manila is having a change of heart. As he has in Australia, Mr Obama will sign a deal to rotate US troops through the Philippines.
Again, the signalling will be critical. The US should continue to insist that China abide by the UN Law of the Sea in pursuit of its claims. But Mr Obama must also make sure that the reinvigoration of US-Philippines defence ties is not mistaken for encirclement. Striking that balance will be key.
The strongest plank of Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia” is the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership talks. Unfortunately, politics in Japan and the US makes a breakthrough unlikely on this trip. Familiar US complaints about barriers to American agricultural and car exports are holding up a larger deal. Congress’s refusal to grant Mr Obama fast-track negotiating authority has slowed momentum further.
However, the absence of a final deal should not spell failure of the process. The TPP will be critical to Asia’s continued integration with the global economy. Both leaders should reiterate their commitment to its ultimate conclusion. At the same time Mr Obama must reassure China that the TPP will not be a closed pact and that the US aims for neither economic nor military encirclement.
Mr Obama’s trip comes as US power is being tested by Russia, China and others. Geopolitics is reasserting itself from Crimea to the Sea of Japan. Mr Obama’s task will be to uphold America’s global commitments without goading its challengers. He must stand by America’s friends without creating enemies. This is a difficult task to which the US president must prove equal on this trip.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.
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