THE STRANGE REVIVAL OF REPUBLICAN AMERICA / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENT & ANALYSIS

March 23, 2014 6:50 pm

The strange revival of Republican America

By Edward Luce

Demographic and other factors are against the Grand Old Party but its electoral hopes are high

©Matt Kenyon

For years people have predicted the Republican party’s demise. The decline of whites as a share of the US population and the spread of tolerant values, such as support for gay marriage, would gradually snuff out its appeal. 

Yet the Grand Old Party has a stubborn way of bouncing back. The coming midterm elections in November are unlikely to be an exception, while the Republican field for the next presidential election looks stronger than at any time since 2000. Tomorrow may indeed arrive at some point. But for the time being, today is going pretty well for the Republicans.

Take the fast-approaching congressional elections. President Barack Obama is giving everything he has in terms of fundraising to retain Democratic control of the Senate. The remainder of his presidency depends on it. Even diehard optimists doubt Democrats could regain control of the House. Yet the more Mr Obama throws at the Senate, the lower his poll numbers fall. Last week he hit a new low of 41 per cent approval versus 54 per cent disapproval. History says an unpopular president’s party loses ground in midterm elections. This year is unlikely to buck the trend.

Republicans need to win six seats to regain control of the Senate in November. Twenty-one of the 36 seats up for grabs are held by Democrats and seven of those are in states that were won by Mitt Romney in 2012. In contrast, just one of the 15 Republican seats being contested was won by Mr Obama. Embattled Democrats, such as Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina, are essentially running against Mr Obama. They have made it clear they do not want his visible support and they talk of Obamacare – his signature healthcare law – as though it was some kind of virus. Charlie Cook, the veteran forecaster, now gives Republicans better than 50:50 odds they will control both chambers for the rest of Mr Obama’s term. Not bad for a party in decline.

Outside Washington, Republicans are more in resurgence than in decline. In 24 states the party holds the governorship and both chambers of the legislature, against just 16 states where the Democrats are in full control. The remaining 10 are split. All told, 30 states have Republican governors.

In some cases, such as Texas, where the Hispanic minority is about to become a majority, the writing is on the wall for conservatives unless they drop their reflexive nativism. In others, such as California, where Republicans have for years done their best to alienate immigrant groups, the party faces the likelihood of being in a permanent minority. Non-whites dislike being scapegoated for society’s ills. They also tend to be more tolerant of fiscal redistribution than whites. Being a party of “small government, big prisons”, is not a recipe for long-term Republican success.

Yet there is something deep within America’s political DNA that recycles first-generation social democrats into second-generation conservatives. For most of the 20th century, Catholic Italians and Irish were a reliable Democratic voting block. Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan changed that partly by using dog whistles to play on their racial fears and partly by appealing to their upwardly mobile aspirations. There is no rule that says Latinos cannot gradually move into the Republican fold. Of America’s ethnic groups, only black and Jewish voters are unshakeably Democratic. If a Republican-controlled Congress can push through immigration reform next year, it could undo much of the sense of alienation felt by Hispanics. With barely a quarter of the Latino vote in 2012, the Republican performance can only improve.

A lot will ride on who wins in 2016. Democrats have won five of the past six presidential elections, if you include George W Bush’s Supreme court-imposed victory in 2000 (he lost on the popular vote). 

Demographics suggest it will become a little more difficult with each cycle for a Republican to take the White House. Moreover, conservative activists in places such as Iowa and South Carolina, which have an outsized say in choosing the party’s nominee, are moving ever further from the US mainstream. Evangelism, opposition to women’s reproductive rights and homophobia are increasingly eccentric planks of an elderly, white base. It becomes increasingly difficult for a moderate, socially tolerant Republican to win his party’s crown. Or so theory goes.

Yet there is nothing like the prospect of victory to galvanise a defeated party. In 2012 most talented Republicans sat on the sidelines. The field comprised Mr Romney plus a human freak show. It was obvious which way the winds were blowing. In contrast, most of the big names this time are either throwing their hat into the ring, or flirting with the idea. From the libertarian Rand Paul, to the moderates Rob Portman and Chris Christie, and the dynastic Jeb Bush, Republican talent clearly sniffs an opportunity.

The contrast with the Democratic field is sharp. Only Hillary Clinton is likely to run and her advisers are agonising over how to distance themselves from Mr Obama without risking his support.

As for Mr Obama, the botched rollout of his healthcare law has done more to discredit the case for activist federal government than Republicans could hope to achieve. For the time being, the hope and change wing of the Democratic party is quiescent. It will be hard for Mrs Clinton to rekindle their enthusiasm. That gives Republicans their best chance since 2000 to regain the White House. The party of yesterday may yet have a future.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014