Another disappointing economic start to the year has investors looking to Beijing to prime the pump. HSBC's preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 48.1 in March from 48.5 in February. It's the first reading since the distorting effects of the Lunar New Year and confirms what many have been denying: China is in slowdown mode again.

This is the third year in a row that the economy has stumbled out of the gate. Each time the government quietly initiates a stimulus that only becomes fully apparent several months down the road. By year's end, the economy hits the growth target, albeit at the expense of efforts to reduce the economy's addiction to debt and infrastructure spending.

Investors have been lulled into the comfort of China propping up growth whenever it flags. It's been only a few months since indicators have turned negative, and already what's bad is good. Investors bid up Hong Kong stocks Monday on the notion the bad PMI reading will force Beijing's hand to give up on long-term goals of rebalancing the economy in favor of more spending now.

It's an object lesson in China's inscrutability that analysts differ wildly on exactly what Beijing might do. Some say a stimulus isn't even needed, given that job creation, a key ingredient in the Communist Party's survival, is holding up.

Others see a stimulus program that's already well under way. Low interbank interest rates suggest the central bank is allowing liquidity to accumulate. The recent fall in the yuan provides relief to exporters, while construction projects get a green light. Five railway projects were recently approved. These might have happened anyway, but the release of the news was interpreted as a signal of intent.

The question is whether this year Beijing can perform the same tricks. It's left itself room to again fall back on debt-driven growth, setting the money supply growth target at 13%, aggressive given that nominal GDP growth has fallen below 10% the past two years.

Yet debt is like alcohol, in that the more often one drinks, the more servings it takes to get drunk. Credit efficiency, or the jolt an economy gets per yuan of debt, has fallen substantially since 2008, according to Nomura calculations. Companies are borrowing more to repay existing loans, rather than generating new economic activity.

That will keep bankers busy, but it's unclear if it will help everyone else.