February 24, 2014 6:34 pm
An east-west battle over Ukraine can be avoided
To stop the country being torn apart its fate must be decided by the Ukrainian people
©Ingram Pinn
Amid the tragedy, euphoria and confusion in Ukraine, the risks of renewed confrontation between Russia and the west are rising. An east-west struggle over the fate of Ukraine would be a tragedy for the country – increasing the risks of civil war and partition. But while a brutal arm-wrestling match between the Kremlin and the west – with Ukraine as the prize – is a distinct possibility, it is absolutely not in the interests of Russia or the west. On the contrary, the Russians, Europeans and Americans have a common interest in preserving Ukraine as a unified country that avoids civil war and bankruptcy.
Talk of “common interests” between Russia and the west in Ukraine risks being dismissed as pious and unrealistic. It should not be. Just before the downfall of Viktor Yanukovich as Ukraine’s president, there were promising signs that Russia and the EU could work together. When three EU foreign ministers negotiated a shortlived deal with Mr Yanukovich, they were joined by a Russian representative. Vladimir Lukin, the man sent by President Vladimir Putin’s government, is Russia’s human-rights ombudsman and somebody with a background in liberal politics – not a Kremlin stooge.
Of course, the combustible ingredients for an east-west confrontation over Ukraine are also very visible. Over the weekend, Susan Rice, the US national security adviser, warned that it would be a “grave mistake” for the Russian government to send troops into Ukraine. Meanwhile, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, has expressed anger that the deal witnessed by Moscow’s representative unravelled so quickly, and has accused the crowds in Kiev of being led by “armed extremists and pogromists”, as well as “rampaging hooligans” – the kind of talk that could be used to justify Russian intervention.
Both Russia and the western powers have a conspiratorial view of the other side’s role in Ukraine. The Russians see the hand of western intelligence agencies behind the demonstrations in Kiev. The west tends to assume that Mr Yanukovich and his henchmen were simply the puppets of Moscow.
In western capitals, the Kremlin’s operatives are seen as ruthless, corrupt, violent and deeply cynical. In Moscow, western policy makers are portrayed as hypocritical, double-dealing and intent on destroying Russia as a global power, while mouthing liberal pieties. This is not a promising backdrop on which to build international co-operation over Ukraine. And yet that is precisely what needs to be done – in everybody’s interests.
A Ukraine at war would be no less of a disaster for the EU. With conflict already raging in Syria, it would mean that the EU now had bloody, civil conflicts on both its southern and eastern borders. The economic collapse of Ukraine and a default on its debts – both distinct possibilities – would also damage both Russia and the EU.
If Russia and the western powers are to work together, they both need to make some concessions to each other’s point of view. The US and the EU could acknowledge Russia’s security concerns by making it clear that Ukraine will not be offered membership of Nato in the foreseeable future. They could even make this a written commitment – since the Russians insist they were double-crossed over informal assurances they claim were given about previous rounds of Nato enlargement.
Above all, the best way to avoid Ukraine being pulled apart in an east-west tug of war is to accept that the political fate of the country can only be decided by Ukrainians themselves. That means that it is crucial that the presidential elections held in May should be clean and free of outside interference. Since neither Russia nor the EU would trust the other party to guarantee the integrity of the process, the UN – which has experience of running elections all over the world – should be entrusted with the task of overseeing the rebirth of Ukrainian democracy.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2014.
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