miércoles, 14 de agosto de 2013

miércoles, agosto 14, 2013

Trading Post

Last updated: August 13, 2013 1:21 pm
 
Momentum could be a boon for gold bugs
 
Price has breached resistance of 50-day moving average
 

Better signs for gold bugs. The price has struggled to move decisively back above the 50-day moving average. But after Monday’s surge, it has breached that resistance. Why the revival?
 
Trading Post noted a week ago that silver might be due a pop as it got dragged higher with industrial metals on optimism over improving global economic conditions.
 
That rationale should not apply to gold, though. It’s industrial use is minimal.
 
It doesn’t look like current inflation fears are the cause, either. US five-year break-even rates are stuck in the middle of their four-year range.
 
Also, building expectations of US Federal Reserve tapering next month would tend to hurt gold. But perhaps that is now priced in and investors recognise central banks will still be ultra-loose for the foreseeable future.
 
The dollar, in which gold is priced, is near multi-month lows. That may have helped.

Whatever the rally’s cause, investors are pushing money back into gold funds. Chinese demand is robust.
 
Gold now must navigate the technical hurdle of $1,350.
 
Overcome that and bugs will see the trend moving back in their favour. Perceived momentum may be the most important driver of gold.
 
 
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2013.

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